A latino-americanização da zona euro

Kenneth Rogoff avisa que o actual modelo dos "bailouts" na zona euro terá consequências desastrosas. Estamos a cometer o mesmo erro da América Latina nos anos 80. As consequências são previsíveis:

What Europe and the IMF have essentially done is to convert a private-debt problem into a sovereign-debt problem. ... Have the Europeans decided that sovereign default is easier, or are they just dreaming that it won’t happen? By nationalizing private debts, Europe is following the path of the 1980’s debt crisis in Latin America. There, too, governments widely “guaranteed” private-sector debt, and then proceeded to default on it.

É irrealista supor que os estados-membros conseguirão suportar o peso das suas dívidas soberanas e as do sector bancário. Tal como já foi sugerido por Angela Merkel, é melhor começarmos a pensar numa renegociação da dívida. Até porque obrigará os credores a serem mais cautelosos no futuro.

Most post-mortems of the Latin American crisis suggest that all parties would have been far better served had they been able to agree on partial debt forgiveness much earlier. As European policymakers seek to move from one stage of denial to another, perhaps it is time to start looking ahead more realistically. As any recovering alcoholic could tell them, the first step is admitting, with Merkel, that Europe has a problem

publicado por Miguel Noronha às 09:05 | partilhar