2010, estoiro orçamental, 2011, o ano da banca (apertem os cintos)

The analysis of the weakness of Portugal's banks, contained in the Banco de Portugal's Financial Stability Report, is disturbingly similar to the structural flaws in Ireland's banks, which took Ireland to the brink of bankruptcy.

Há diferenças? Infelizmente há. Mas deixo ao cuidado do leitor, lendo o artigo de Rober Preston no News Preston's Pick da BBC, ver apenas algumas delas, e passo ao excerto final.


Now here's the painful rub for the Portuguese government and people. The Portuguese central bank says "the furthering of a credible fiscal consolidation process is essential for facilitating the reopening of the international financial markets to Portuguese banks, thus allowing for a more gradual adjustment of the Portuguese economy".

Which means that the rehabilitation of Portugal's banks requires the Portuguese government to take credible steps to shrink its deficit, by raising taxes and cutting expenditure.

But in doing so, the Portuguese government would probably generate an increase in unemployment and a contraction in revenues for private sector businesses, in the short term at least. Which, the central bank says, means defaults on corporate and consumer credit loans - which are already running at a high rate - could rise further, generating increased losses for banks.

All that - along with the need for the banks to meet the new Basel lll capital thresholds - is why Portuguese banks have to raise billions of euros in additional capital, as a protection against those possible future losses.

Which implies that the Portuguese government and Portuguese banks will collectively have to raise a colossal amount of new money over the coming weeks and months.

Can they obtain those tens of billions of euros from commercial sources, in the way that Portugal's finance minister has been insisting is possible? Maybe.

That said, the disclosure by the Banco de Portugal that the Portuguese government has only kept its head above water by borrowing from the ECB via Portuguese banks rather suggests that - like Ireland - Portugal's financial rehabilitation will require a substantial package of loans from the EU and IMF.

publicado por Jorge Costa às 22:38 | comentar | partilhar