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Otmar Issing avisa que os "bailouts" e as eurobonds para além de premiarem a irresponsabilidade podem causar o fim da UE. "Slithering to the wrong kind of union" no Financial Times


[T]he fact that a member country can be assured that its membership of the euro – even in the case of permanent violations of the rules – will be saved at any price causes moral hazard and creates an obvious potential for blackmail.


The decisions taken at the last European crisis summit on July 21 greatly extended the powers of the European Financial Stability Facility and brought new help for Greece. This increase European involvement in domestic policymaking. But this is not a move in the direction of a true political union. It is a dangerous step, and one which will end up dividing Europe.


Most observers rightly interpret this increasing shared fiscal liability as a step in the direction of a European common bond. The idea of issuing bonds which all member states of the eurozone guarantee insofar seems sensible, as it would immediately lower interest rates for the highly indebted countries. However, there is a problem too, given it would also lead to higher interest rates for those countries that enjoyed credibility with financial markets in the past. Those who claim that this effect would be small succumb either to an illusion or deliberately underestimate this risk. Considering the amount of debt which over time would become “common” for each country, it is hard to overestimate the interest risk for the hitherto responsible debtors.


 A common bond would also immediately relieve some countries of their burden of a record of fiscal irresponsibility. A stronger case of free riding can hardly be imagined. Lack of fiscal discipline is rewarded, while fiscal solidity is punished. The implied transfer of taxpayers’ money would also take place without the involvement of national parliaments – a clear violation of the fundamental democratic principle of “no taxation without representation”.(...)


A monetary union with a stable euro can only survive if central bank independence is fully respected. This implies that the European Central Bank abstains from fiscal policy actions. Yet to change the “no bail-out” clause ever more in the direction of a bail-out regime is not a step towards a democratically-legitimised political union. It is a move on a slippery road to a regime of fiscal indiscipline drowning hitherto solid countries in the morass of over-indebtedness.


This type of political union would not survive. Its collapse would be brought by resistance from the people. In the past cries of “no taxation without representation” have brought war. This time the consequence would be to threaten the collapse of the most successful project of economic integration in the history of mankind




publicado por Miguel Noronha às 12:00 | partilhar